Despite spending a large chunk of the season outside the top five, Liverpool could potentially secure Champions League qualification with three matches to spare on Sunday.
Helped partly by UEFA’s introduction of European Performance Spots granting England a fifth entry into their flagship club tournament, the Reds now seem highly likely to qualify after a run of three successive Premier League wins in April took them eight points clear of sixth-placed Brighton.
Opta’s model rates the probability of a top-five finish for Arne Slot’s side at 96.92%, with Gary Neville citing a ‘95%-99%‘ likelihood of that happening, and there’s a combination of results which could push those figures to 100% by 5:30pm on Sunday.
As it stands, with four matches to play, Liverpool are in a very healthy position to finish inside the top five and duly qualify for the Champions League.
There’s still a bit of work to be done to make sure they complete the job and don’t suffer a collapse in form similar to 2017/18, when from a similar position at this stage they contrived to nearly throw it away before securing fourth place (then the final qualification spot) on the final day.
The only way that the Reds can guarantee a top-five finish this coming weekend is by beating Manchester United on Sunday afternoon, a result which’d also see them leapfrog Michael Carrick’s side into third place.
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Even if Liverpool win at Old Trafford, they’d still need two other results before then to go their way if they’re to be mathematically guaranteed a Champions League place before they host Chelsea on 9 May.
If Brighton were to drop points away to Newcastle on Saturday and Bournemouth fail to beat Crystal Palace at home on Sunday (2pm kick-off), then Slot’s team would be assured of a top-five finish should they beat the Red Devils.
At the moment, five teams between 8th and 12th could mathematically finish above the Reds, but a win over Man United at the weekend would completely remove all of the teams from the equation (which could also happen beforehand if they were to lose their own games).
Even a draw at Old Trafford and a home win over Chelsea would take Liverpool onto 62 points, thus ensuring that Brighton would need a 100% record from hereon to (at best) finish level on points with us.
LFC aren’t over the line just yet, and they still have tough fixtures to come, but their destiny is very much in their own hands, and it’d be nice to finish the job with games to spare so that we can breathe easy for the final week or two of what’s been an exhausting season.
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Mate, hopefully next season you will be reporting How Liverpool could mathematically secure premier league title on Sunday. Not with this head coach though…
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