Liverpool are still overwhelming favourites to qualify for next season’s Champions League, but the numbers are starting to trend in the wrong direction after another frustrating result at Anfield.
Following the disappointing 1-1 draw with Chelsea, Opta Analyst now gives us a “97.34%” chance of securing Champions League football for next season.
That remains comfortably ahead of Aston Villa, Bournemouth and Brighton, but it is still another small drop after recent setbacks.
Just last weekend, following defeat to Manchester United, Liverpool’s probability stood at 97.15%.
After Chelsea then lost heavily to Nottingham Forest, those chances rose again to 98.35%.
Now, after failing to beat a Chelsea side that arrived at Anfield on a six-game losing streak, the percentage has dipped once more.
The bigger issue right now probably isn’t the table itself.
It’s the direction of the performances.
Liverpool started brightly against Chelsea and looked dangerous through Rio Ngumoha early on, with Ryan Gravenberch opening the scoring after just six minutes.
But once Chelsea equalised through Enzo Fernandez’s bizarre free-kick, the energy disappeared again.
The pressing became passive, the intensity dropped and the side looked increasingly nervous both on and off the ball.
That’s becoming a recurring theme under Arne Slot during this difficult run.
Supporters can accept poor results when the effort and identity are clear, but at the moment there are growing concerns about both.
Despite the frustration, qualification is still firmly in our hands.
Liverpool remain fourth in the table on 59 points, one point ahead of Aston Villa with two matches remaining.
However, the mood around Anfield is shifting quickly because performances are not improving.
Chelsea arrived badly out of form, yet Liverpool still managed just 0.51 expected goals, their lowest Premier League xG total at home since another poor display against the Blues back in March 2021 (Opta).
With Aston Villa up next on Friday night, there is now real pressure on Slot and his players to stop the slide before the situation becomes even more uncomfortable.
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The biggest concern for Liverpool football club will be what FSG do at end of the season. With or without champions league I can’t think of a more important time for American owners FSG in the time they’ve been here. I say this because since klopp departed we’ve been overtaken by Arsenal, now Manchester United. If Chelsea and Manchester United make the right decisions on their next manager we will fall further next season.
Lots of big football clubs will be looking for a new manager this summer. Real Madrid, Chelsea, Manchester United, and possibly Manchester city.
Meanwhile there’s lots of experience leaving the football club at the wrong time. We are in Limbo with owners FSG who don’t know what to do. They wont sack the manager, yet won’t extend his contract.
Crucial decisions ahead this summer which if FSG doesn’t get right will mean Liverpool football club will get left behind.
Under klopp we were competitive against Manchester city, we could look down on Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea. Were were better. Things have now changed. The most mportant time for FSG since they bough the football club. Deliver or decline.
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