Liverpool are overwhelmingly likely to secure Champions League football on Sunday, but there is still one extremely specific scenario that could extend our season beyond the Brentford finale.
The day is already set to be emotional, with Mo Salah and Andy Robertson preparing for their final Anfield appearances, but there remains a competitive edge because Arne Slot’s side have still not mathematically crossed the line.
Michael Reid, a data analyst for Opta, has outlined on X that Liverpool could still be forced into a play-off for fifth place if results and goal difference land in a very precise way.
He wrote: “So… I think that if Bournemouth beat Forest 5-0 and Liverpool lose 1-0 to Brentford, it goes to a play-off for 5th… I think it goes on points in head-to-heads, then away goals. So we’re equal on both.”
That would require a six-goal swing between us and Bournemouth, with Liverpool losing at Anfield and Andoni Iraola’s side winning heavily away at Nottingham Forest.
Given Opta Analyst currently has us at 99.65% to qualify for next season’s Champions League, this remains a highly unlikely situation, but the fact it even exists shows how uncomfortable the run-in has become.
The Reds sit three points ahead of Bournemouth going into the final day, meaning avoiding defeat to Brentford would remove any drama and allow Anfield to focus fully on farewell tributes.
A Liverpool win could also matter elsewhere, because Bournemouth may still have a separate route into the Champions League depending on Aston Villa’s Europa League final result and the final-day table.
For Slot, though, none of that should be the main focus.
After the 4-2 defeat at Villa Park, when Ollie Watkins exposed familiar weaknesses and Virgil van Dijk’s two goals were not enough, Liverpool need a controlled final performance more than another afternoon of calculations.
This season has already created enough strange records, painful collapses and uncomfortable questions.
Now, the bare minimum is simple: beat Brentford, secure Champions League football and give Salah and Robertson the send-off they deserve.
Welcome to our Live Comments section, where new comments will appear automatically
Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *
Notify me of follow-up comments by email.
Notify me of new posts by email.
