Liverpool have been given a huge Champions League boost before Sunday’s final-day meeting with Brentford, even if the job has still not officially been completed.
After the 4-2 defeat at Aston Villa, there was a real risk that Mo Salah and Andy Robertson’s Anfield farewell could become a day dominated by nerves.
Now, though, the latest Opta projection suggests we are extremely close to securing the bare minimum target for next season.
According to Opta Analyst, Liverpool now have a “99.65%” chance of qualifying for next season’s Champions League.
That leaves Bournemouth with just a 0.35% chance of overhauling us on the final day, meaning the Reds are almost there despite making hard work of the run-in.
The reason it still isn’t officially done is because there remains a three-point gap and a possible six-goal swing, but it would now take a remarkable final-day collapse for Arne Slot’s side to miss out.
That is the positive angle, although it’s hard to ignore how uncomfortable this has become after we looked to have qualification all but sorted weeks ago.
This latest figure is also a sharp change from the mood after Villa Park, when Opta had Liverpool down at 92.64% following another damaging away defeat.
The previous Chelsea draw had already seen our chances fall to 97.34%, so this has been a strange end to the season where the numbers have moved around almost as much as the performances have.
Sunday should be about Salah, Robertson and the debut of the new 2026/27 home kit, with Anfield ready to say goodbye to two players who helped define an era.
Instead, there will still be a small competitive edge to the afternoon because Liverpool need to make sure there is no late embarrassment.
The Reds remain overwhelming favourites to finish inside the Champions League places, but after the way this season has unravelled, Slot and his players could do with ending it properly rather than relying on the mathematics.
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