With nine games to go, we assess the Premier League teams behind Arsenal and Manchester City who are most likely to fill the remaining berths
Reasons for optimism: Michael Carrick recently professed himself as “definitely a glass half-full” manager so the interim surely looks at the final nine games and sees a huge opportunity. Particularly positive here are the fixtures with Aston Villa (Sunday), Chelsea (18 April) and Liverpool (2 May): three chances for Manchester United to seriously damage the Champions League qualification prospects of the three teams currently directly below them and enhance their own. Carrick’s men are third but only three points above Liverpool in sixth and, with fifth probably enough for a Champions League berth, beating even one of the three would be a big boost to hopes – provided results are rosy in United’s other fixtures.
Causes for caution: Could the flaky mid-winter form that was a factor in Ruben Amorim’s January sacking return to plague United at precisely the wrong time? There can be zero certainty it will not, so we are about to discover the robustness of the Carrick project and how equipped the callow 44-year-old is for the intense demand of a tilt at Champions League qualification. After his first defeat as United’s head coach in the most recent game, at Newcastle, Carrick will receive his first experience of the sharp end of managing a club when the stakes are high should his team go down again against Aston Villa at Old Trafford on Sunday. A measured demeanour suggests he will not crumble but Carrick is about to be seriously tested. Jamie Jackson
Remaining fixtures: Aston Villa (h), Bournemouth (a), Leeds (h), Chelsea (a), Brentford (h), Liverpool (h), Sunderland (a), Nottingham Forest (h), Brighton (a)
Reasons for optimism: With nine games to go, Villa are three points better off than Chelsea and Liverpool. Unai Emery stressed how his side still had the upper hand on Chelsea despite a 4-1 defeat by them in their last league match. That cushion could be reduced on Sunday at Old Trafford, where Villa’s Champions League hopes came crashing down on the last day of last season. Morgan Rogers this week said the dressing room is a duller place without John McGinn, and Villa have faltered without their captain on the field, so the return of the Scotland midfielder against Lille represented a timely boost. Youri Tielemans, another player sorely missed, is targeting a comeback at the start of next month and Ollie Watkins is scoring again, the England striker recording his first goal in eight matches in northern France.
Causes for caution: On Thursday evening Emery acknowledged Villa were juggling two main priorities: the Europa League and reclaiming a top-five berth. Emery usually insists domestic duties are king but he is desperate to win silverware at Villa, a tangible reward for his work, and add a record fifth Europa League to his trophy cabinet. If Villa, well placed to reach the quarter-finals, were to make it to the final in Istanbul in May, it would render the balancing act trickier again. They must improve their home form. Villa are short of the momentum they had when they racked up 11 straight wins before the turn of the year and are unlikely to be at full strength any time soon, with Boubacar Kamara expected to miss the rest of the season. Ben Fisher
Remaining fixtures: Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Nottingham Forest (a), Sunderland (h), Fulham (a), Spurs (h), Burnley (a), Liverpool (h), Manchester City (a)
Reasons for optimism: The sheer wealth of talent at Liam Rosenior’s disposal should prove decisive. João Pedro is in scorching form up front and Cole Palmer will hope for a strong run after missing much of the campaign with a groin injury. Chelsea are a match for anyone when they click. Moisés Caicedo has excelled again in defensive midfield and Enzo Fernández has been productive in front of goal since the appointment of Rosenior, who has made a good start since replacing Enzo Maresca as head coach. The 41-year-old has handled himself well in public, made a positive impression on players and banished the instability caused by the breakdown in Maresca’s relationship with the Chelsea hierarchy.
Causes for caution: Inconsistency and indiscipline. Chelsea have dropped 19 points from winning positions and, as Rosenior says, keep setting fire to leads. Better concentration is needed. There has been dozy defending at set pieces and a team with nine red cards this season risks missing out on the primary aim of Champions League qualification. The run-in is tricky, with Chelsea still to host the Manchester clubs and travel to Anfield, all while negotiating runs in the FA Cup and Europe. Fatigue could come into play. Chelsea did not have a proper pre-season after going all the way in the Club World Cup and have had a lot of injuries. Jacob Steinberg
Remaining fixtures: Newcastle (h), Everton (a), Man City (h), Man Utd (h), Brighton (a), Nottingham Forest (h), Liverpool (a), Spurs (h), Sunderland (a)
Reasons for optimism: Losing only three of the past 17 games has moved Arne Slot’s side up the table to put them in contention for a place at Europe’s top table. The football has not been particularly exciting at times but they have found a way to be effective. Alexander Isak should return to fitness for the final seven matches, at least, which would provide a timely boost to a squad that has been far from prolific for the most part but showed its potential with five goals against West Ham recently. The remaining home fixtures are relatively friendly: of the teams currently above Liverpool, only Chelsea will visit Anfield, where the Reds will need to pick up most of the points that remain on offer to head north from sixth.
Causes for caution: Too many winnable games have turned into surprise draws, a trait that cost them since the turn of the year. They have looked defensively brittle over an extended period; the previously imperious Ibrahima Konaté has made numerous mistakes and their ability to defend set pieces has been questionable throughout, which is problematic when so many teams do their damage from them. At the other end, profligacy has become an issue, which came to the fore in the midweek Champions League loss when they failed to score from any of their 15 shots, and have the lowest conversion rate (10.48%) of the current top six in the Premier League. Their final two away games are against Champions League qualification rivals, Manchester United and Aston Villa, which could prove significant. Will Unwin
Remaining fixtures: Spurs (h), Brighton (a), Fulham (h), Everton (a), Crystal Palace (h), Manchester United (a), Chelsea (h), Aston Villa (a), Brentford (h)
