There are defeats that feel damaging in the moment, and then there are ones that look far less significant when the bigger picture is taken into account.
That’s exactly where we find ourselves after the loss to Manchester United, because despite the frustration of throwing away a point at Old Trafford, the data still paints a very positive picture for us.
According to Opta via their Analyst model, Liverpool remain overwhelmingly likely to secure a top five finish this season.
The number attached to that probability says everything about where we stand right now, 97.15%.
That figure places us firmly among the sides expected to qualify for the Champions League, alongside Arsenal, Manchester City and United, who are all rated at 100%, while Aston Villa sit just behind us at 95.06%.
When you look at the rest of the chasing pack, the drop-off is significant, with Bournemouth, Brighton, Chelsea and Brentford all given minimal chances of breaking into that top five.
What that tells us is that, despite the result, our position hasn’t dramatically changed in the race for Champions League football.
Arne Slot made it clear after the match that dropping points was frustrating, particularly given the way we fought back into the game, but our Dutch head coach also acknowledged that we still have opportunities to get the job done in the remaining fixtures.
That aligns with the numbers, because even with the defeat, we’re still in control of our own destiny, and it would take a significant collapse for us to miss out from here.
There are still concerns about performances, though, with Daniel Sturridge highlighting issues with our structure and identity, while Roy Keane’s criticism of the first-half display at Old Trafford underlined just how far off it we were early on.
But ultimately, results over the course of the season matter more than individual performances, and that’s why the Opta model continues to back us so heavily.
With three games left and a 97.15% probability of finishing in the top five, the message is simple, because even after a disappointing afternoon, we remain firmly on course for Champions League football.
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