Liverpool should be fine on the final day of the Premier League season, but Opta have detailed exactly how Arne Slot’s side could still be dragged into late Champions League drama.
What should have been an Anfield afternoon built around Mo Salah and Andy Robertson’s farewells now carries a serious competitive edge, with Brentford visiting on Sunday and our place in Europe’s elite competition still not mathematically secure.
The picture is favourable, but after a season in which the Reds have made hard work of too many situations, nothing can be taken for granted.
Opta Analyst have explained the permutations before Sunday’s final round of fixtures, with Liverpool fifth on 59 points and Bournemouth three points behind us.
Opta stated: “For Liverpool, avoiding defeat to Brentford will confirm Champions League football for next season.”
That is the cleanest version of events for us.
Win or draw, and Liverpool are in the Champions League.
Lose, and the door opens slightly for Bournemouth, who would need to beat Nottingham Forest and overturn a major goal difference gap.
Opta added: “Bournemouth go into the final day three points behind fifth-place Liverpool, now needing to win at Nottingham Forest and hoping Brentford beat the Reds at Anfield, with at least a seven-goal swing in goal difference.”
That scenario remains unlikely, but the fact it exists at all is frustrating when we looked to have Champions League football effectively sorted weeks ago.
There is also a more positive twist, because Aston Villa winning the Europa League has created another route for the Premier League’s sixth-placed side to reach the Champions League.
If Liverpool beat Brentford and Villa lose away to Manchester City, we can climb above Unai Emery’s side and finish fourth.
Opta’s supercomputer has Liverpool finishing fourth and Villa fifth in 37.5% of simulations, while Bournemouth finished above the Reds in only 0.4%.
That should calm nerves, especially when Slot has already admitted: “Qualification for the Champions League has impact at this club on our plans. That is definitely true.”
Liverpool need to remove the uncertainty quickly, which some positive injury news has improved our chances, and then give Salah and Robertson the farewell their Anfield careers deserve.
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