Spencer Mossman’s analysis of Liverpool’s form since the end of the 2025/26 season indicates the Reds are on course for a fifth-place finish this term.
The Merseysiders currently find themselves just inside the Champions League spots (presuming that England takes the additional spot on coefficient scores).
As things stand (as of 23 March), the Premier League is all but guaranteed to win one of two extra European Performance Spots by UEFA.
Whilst Liverpool’s performances in Europe may contradict matters at home, the fact of the matter remains that Arne Slot’s men are considerably off the boil.
Indeed, Spencer Mossman’s analysis on X (formerly Twitter) highlights that the club has suffered a massive drop-off from their title-winning form of 2024/25.
📊 Liverpool under Arne Slot
The international break seems like a good time to revisit this.
In the past two months since the original post, pts/match have been slightly below performance level relative to xG differential.
What hasn't changed is that the entire season,… https://t.co/s8lIY8Ft47 pic.twitter.com/UuHbVDjTCM
— Spencer Mossman (@fc_mossman) March 23, 2026
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Yes, still qualifying for the Champions League would have to represent a small victory for the club in light of the turmoil of the season.
But this is still a squad carrying so much quality that it has to be considered something of a failure if we’re only holding on to Champions League football as a result of a technicality.
To be completely fair to Slot, it’s not like his predecessor, Jurgen Klopp, delivered season upon season of incredible success.
But you always got the sense, even in the “difficult” seasons, that things were being worked upon behind the scenes to get some kind of sustainable improvement from the second half of the campaign.
Take the 2020/21 season as an example, with injuries decimating our backline and forcing the likes of Nathaniel Phillips and Rhys Williams into the limelight.
By early March, Liverpool were toiling in eighth, but won eight out of their remaining 10 Premier League games to ensure a top-three finish in the table. That’s title-winning form. Or, at the very least, top two form.
But this toothless Reds outfit looks incredibly unlikely to win 80% of their remaining seven league games on current form, and that’s despite having an arguably more functional starting-XI to work with.
In fact, to get near the same points total in 2020/21, Slot’s Liverpool would have to win every remaining game (which would take us to 70 points).
As we close in on April, however, there’s simply no sign of us getting our act together for the business end of the season.
If our Dutch head coach is to survive beyond the summer, he has to prove that he can inspire a similar turnaround to his predecessor.
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Klopp was an Elite coach at Liverpool, he had one of the lowest net spends in the premier league only 35 million a season, yet he made Liverpool competitive against Manchester city and their billions. The biggest difference between klopp and slot was team ethic. Built on hard work, pressing all over the pitch and a gameplan. After winning the league klopp was not backed , the midfield aged and degraded the high intensity was no longer there and we ended up in the Europa league, it was the fault of FSG.
27 out of 31 games we have been outrun this season. Then there’s the duels lost the tackles lost and it explains the lack of pressing. Brighton didn’t play the low block, they played open football, so that’s another excuse slot can’t use. We’ve been here before with Brendan Rodgers, who was also not an Elite coach. You do wonder what was was in the 60 page dossier that decided that slot was the right manager for Liverpool, no doubt it was a similar dossier that brought Brendan Rodgers to Liverpool. It’s clueless ownership, good business men, but they haven’t got a clue when it comes to football.
FSG sitting back doing nothing as we drift aimlessly towards no champions league next season. with a third rate manager they picked. Whoever writes the next 60 page dossier make sure it’s a manager who’s proved himself at the highest level. Dutch football isnt at the highest level.
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